Most retirement calculators stop at a projected balance — a number with no verdict. This one answers the follow-up: that balance versus the target your spending implies. Enter what you have, what you add each year, and what you expect to spend; the calculator projects your savings, applies your withdrawal rate, and tells you plainly whether you're funded — and by how much.
How this plan check works
Step 1 — Project. Your savings compound year by year: each year the balance grows by the net return and then your contribution is added. The table shows the accumulation phase, and the projected balance is where you land at retirement.
Step 2 — Target and compare. Your target is the portfolio your spending implies: annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate. A $60,000 spend at 4% needs $1,500,000. If the projected balance meets the target, you're funded; the difference is your surplus or shortfall.
balance[n] = balance[n-1] × (1 + netReturn) + annualContribution
target = annualSpending ÷ withdrawalRate
gap = projectedBalance − target · funded = gap ≥ 0What this calculator deliberately does not model: sequence-of-returns risk, taxes (federal, state, or on withdrawals), inflation adjustments to spending, Social Security, and changing contribution patterns. Treat this page as the plan-level check, not the whole plan — for the withdrawal phase, start with the retirement withdrawal calculator.
The sample, end to end. You have $180,000 saved, add $15,000 a year for 25 years at 7% net of fees, and plan to spend $60,000 a year. At a 4% withdrawal rate that's a $$1,500,000 target. You project to $$1,925,673 — $$425,673 above target, fully funded. Growth did $1,550,673 of the work; contributions the other $375,000. By year 15 the balance is $$873,561.
Terms & definitions
Withdrawal rate
The percentage of the starting portfolio withdrawn in year one of retirement, then typically adjusted for inflation. The classic planning heuristic is 4%.
Retirement target
The portfolio your spending implies: annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate. $60,000 at 4% means a $1,500,000 target.
Sequence-of-returns risk
The danger that poor market returns early in retirement do disproportionate damage to a portfolio. Not modeled on this page.
Full retirement age
The Social Security age at which you receive your full benefit (67 for those born 1960+). Claiming earlier reduces it.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 4% rule safe?
It's a planning heuristic, not a guarantee. The underlying research found that withdrawing 4% of the starting portfolio, adjusted annually for inflation, survived most historical 30-year US periods — but not all, and the future won't replay the past. Sequence-of-returns risk (bad early years) is the main threat, and this calculator doesn't model it. For the stress test, use the retirement withdrawal calculator.
Does this account for sequence risk or taxes?
No — deliberately. This page is the plan-level check: one accumulation projection and one target comparison. It does not model the order of market returns, federal or state taxes, or withdrawal-time tax treatment. Those are withdrawal-phase questions; see the 401(k) withdrawal calculator for account-level detail.
How do I include Social Security or a pension?
Subtract the income from your planned spending before entering it. If you'll spend $60,000 and expect $24,000 from Social Security, enter $36,000 — the portfolio only has to fund the gap. Estimate your benefit with the social security calculator; federal employees can estimate the pension side with the FERS pension calculator.
How is this different from the retirement savings calculator?
This page answers "will I have enough?" — it compares your projected balance against a spending-based target. The retirement savings calculator answers "what will my savings become?" — pure accumulation with no target. Use the savings page to watch a single account grow; use this page for the plan-level verdict.
References
- IRS — retirement topics and plan basics: irs.gov/retirement-plans
- Social Security Administration — estimate your benefits: ssa.gov/benefits/retirement
- Investor.gov — compound interest calculator and fundamentals: investor.gov